Hard Money Dispatch: Week of November 17

Bitcoin is down ~30% in the last six weeks, currently trading around $89,000 USD.

After almost three years of a nearly constant uptrend, a correction like this has been overdue.

The timing is what has caught many people off guard.

I admit, even I was expecting a euphoric blow-off top sometime this quarter. But as it stands now, it looks like October may have been the top, and a year-long bear market may be beginning.

Regardless, as I said in my interview with i24 News back in mid-2022 (during the last bear market), downturns like this are par for the course for Bitcoin. It’s happened many times before, and will happen again.

During that interview, the final question the newscaster asked me was, “is now a good time to buy?”

I get that question all the time, and my response is always the same: it’s always a good time to buy, so long as you have a timeframe of at least four years (ideally longer).

So far, no one has ever lost money buying bitcoin and holding for four years. This can be seen in a chart of the 200-week moving average, which has only gone up since Bitcoin’s inception.

First, there doesn’t have to be a particular reason. Bitcoin does this regardless of what’s happening in the world. 

But one potential factor could be Bitcoin Core v30. Many people do not like this version of the Bitcoin software and believe it could hurt Bitcoin long-term, and some may be panic selling as a result.

It’s interesting to note that the current market slide does coincide with the launch of Core v30:

Whether they fear Core v30 or not, many long-term holders have also been taking profits in fiat for the last 12 months or so. This includes holders who have been waiting for 10 years or even more to offload positions into a market that could absorb significant selling pressure. Some of the activity comes from wallets that have been dormant for many years and have a very low average cost basis.

In other words, people who bought bitcoin when it was $10, $100, or $1,000 dollars decided to sell some at prices near $100,000.

Long-term, nothing has changed, aside from Core v30 being launched, allowing for any kind of arbitrary data to be stored on the Bitcoin blockchain. But even that can be seen as a positive, since it’s led to new alternative software versions growing in popularity, like Knots and Bitcoin Commons (listen to last week’s podcast with Gil Roberts).

If you’re newer to bitcoin, this could be a great time for you. Dollar-cost averaging (buying small amounts at regular intervals) is most profitable during bear markets.

However, no one knows with 100% certainty that a bear market is beginning. Rather, we can only make educated guesses in the form of probabilities.

Right now, my own opinion is that there’s roughly a 70% chance that we’re in the early stages of a bear market. Still, there could be a 30% chance that bitcoin makes a new all-time high next year, and the cycle is simply lengthening.

Those are the two most likely outcomes given my research: 1) bear market throughout 2026, or 2) a lengthening of the traditional 4-year cycle.

Either way, we will know a lot more six months from now. In May of 2026, most analysts predict that BTC/USD will likely be at either $60,000 or lower, or somewhere closer to $200,000.

I prefer to talk about more than price alone, but at this time, it’s definitely the thing everyone is focused on.

And in a way, price is more than just price: it represents the prevailing market sentiment, where adoption is heading, and gives insight into how people currently view the asset and network.

Side note: If you’re looking for in-depth technical analysis on Bitcoin and crypto prices, Benjamin Cohen has a great YouTube channel (I have no affiliation with him): https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCRvqjQPSeaWn-uEx-w0XOIg  

Every single time a crash like this has ever happened, all kinds of commentators come out of the woodwork to declare victory, proclaiming that they’ve finally been proven right and Bitcoin itself has died as both a technology and an asset.

Bitcoin has been declared dead over 450 times at this point: https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/

By now, it should be clear that BTC isn’t going anywhere.  

People all around the world have begun tuning in to the Hard Money Dispatch podcast (links below).

In this week’s episode, I talk about the recent crash along with the collapse of the Bitharvest ponzi scheme.

Side note: tax season is coming, and crypto taxes can be complicated. That’s why I’ve partnered with CoinTracker, a simple software app that plugs into your crypto exchanges and automatically imports transaction data, to help make filing crypto taxes much easier.

Check out CoinTracker here: https://cointracker.sjv.io/POXQkQ

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Till next time,

(Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and shall not constitute financial advice).