TL;DR
Bitcoin’s long-term volatility has nearly halved since 2021, thanks to institutional adoption and treasury holdings.
Despite this, the current price action may represent a bear market rally, with BTC trading below key technical levels.
Historically, being below the 50-week SMA has signaled temporary weakness—but long-term trends remain bullish.
Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) continues to be the best strategy for small savers and long-term holders.
This week’s Hard Money Dispatch podcast dives into Bitcoin as a savings tool and educating the next generation for a Bitcoin-native future.
Bitcoin’s Volatility Continues to Decline
While recent events might make this hard to believe, the volatility of BTC as an asset has actually been on the decline.
In the past, swings have been more dramatic, particularly to the downside.
I remember times, many years ago, when BTC/USD would fall from $600 to $400 overnight. That’s a 30% loss in less than one day. Today, people are freaking out about a 30% decline from $126,000 that took weeks to play out.
With increasing institutional adoption, i.e. Bitcoin treasury companies and ETF managers acquiring and holding massive amounts of the total BTC supply, volatility has been on a steady decline for at least the past year, and is only half of what it was just four years ago.
From Cointelegraph:
“Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s long-term volatility has nearly halved, falling to 43% from 84.4% at the peak of the 2021 bull run, underscoring a sustained dampening of systemic volatility.”
BTC volatility vs price chart. Source: Cointelegraph
Of course, even though overall volatility has declined, it may seem even worse because bigger numbers are involved.
The Current Rally Could Be a Bear Market Rally
“Mike Trading” is a great LinkedIn creator to follow for technical analysis of stocks, Bitcoin and crypto.
Here’s what he had to say recently:
Bitcoin is now trading below the broken weekly trendline, a level that held perfectly for almost two years.
When a major structure like this fails on the weekly chart, it usually means one thing:
the trend has shifted.
Unless Bitcoin can reclaim the trendline quickly, downside pressure is likely to continue through December.
As I’ve mentioned before, BTC/USD has also been beneath its 50-week simple moving average (SMA) for some time now. This has signaled a bear market every time it happened for the last 16 years.
Here’s a great video on the subject by Benjamin Cowen from about four weeks ago, when BTC had its first weekly close beneath the 50-week SMA this year: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9g1QsTVizyQ
Benjamin Cowen YouTube channel.
Many people with significant portions of their net worth in bitcoin have taken profits in USD this year. But for those with small amounts who have begun stacking sats recently, this shouldn’t change anything. In fact, it’s an opportunity.
Those who dollar-cost average (DCA) consistently benefit from volatility by acquiring more BTC at lower prices. 2026 could be the last chance for anyone to acquire bitcoin at prices underneath $100,000.
If bitcoin is like a small savings account to you, the best thing to do (in my opinion) is to DCA and not even think about it. Don’t check the price too often and don’t panic sell or panic buy. Stay consistent, and one day you’ll be glad you did.
There are exceptions to this, of course. Anyone approaching retirement age or with a significant position can always consider reducing exposure for personal reasons.
But overall, as anyone can see, selling BTC for USD has historically turned out to be a mistake about 99% of the time, unless it was absolutely necessary for an individual.
Gemini is one of the largest, most trusted, publicly-traded bitcoin/crypto exchanges in the US. Recently, their stock has made headlines for launching a prediction market that allows users to gamble on the outcomes of certain events.
While I don’t recommend prediction market betting, Gemini could be a reasonable choice for those looking for a crypto exchange (just be careful to avoid altcoins).
Sign up for Gemini here: https://gemini.sjv.io/e1oXzD
This Week on the Hard Money Dispatch Podcast
🏠 Many people today can't afford to own a home. This problem will only intensify for future generations.
🥇 Thankfully, using Bitcoin as a savings account provides hope.
🎙️ In this episode of Hard Money Dispatch, I speak with Cole Stuart about his previous work involving Bitcoin Health Savings Accounts (HSAs), the Financial Independence Retire Early (FIRE) movement, and educating future generations on how Bitcoin works in a world where it will likely be ubiquitous.
🎧 Listen on:
Apple: https://lnkd.in/gyDTjvsP
Spotify: https://lnkd.in/giuTKsUi
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If you prefer to watch it on YouTube, here’s the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4BFw1IcXBMM
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Till next time,