Hard Money Dispatch: Week of 2/2/26

While I don’t like to always be focused on price action, it’s all people are going to be thinking about during times like these. And that’s okay. My experience living through the last three bear markets (and never selling) can be valuable to others, I hope.

If I had sold during 2022, 2018, for example, I’d be in a much worse position than I am today. Holding on wasn’t too hard back then because I had a decent income and only a fraction of my net worth in the form of bitcoin.

But as time went on, obviously that fraction grew into a bigger and bigger slice of the pie, until late 2024 and into 2025, when it became a little too much to bear.

So, while I never wanted to do so, I wound up setting some stop loss orders with a portion of the colds I held, in addition to selling small amounts each month for fiat. And of course, those stop loss orders quickly got filled as BTC/USD tanked.

Anyway, the point is this: my situation is probably different than yours. Most of you are more likely around the stage I was in during the last several bear markets. If you 1) have reliable income, and 2) don’t have a major portion of your net worth in bitcoin, then major drawdowns like this can literally be the opportunity of a lifetime for you.

Each time bitcoin experiences a bear market, the entire price range for that ~14 months or so (10 months left to go as of this writing, if history repeats) winds up being an ideal entry point in the years to come, with prices never returning to those levels for long.

Example: 2017 - 2018: $1000 - $19,000. Drawdown to roughly $3,000. In the next cycle, Bitcoin never got anywhere near $3,000 again, aside from the 2020 COVID crash, from which it quickly recovered and rallied back over $20,000 in about nine months. In this case, even someone who bought at the absolute peak of $19,000 in December 2017 would have still been in profit if they managed to hold on for four years, until December 2020/January 2021. Of course, those who dollar-cost average (DCA) instead don’t have to wait four years – they outperform much sooner.

I could go through more examples, but you get the point. This is what bitcoin does, again and again.

While no one can time the absolute bottom, historically speaking, big drawdowns have always appeared to be the best entry points.

The most important indicator I’m keeping an eye on is bitcoin’s 200-week simple moving average (SMA).

The 200-week SMA has, in the past, always acted as support for all of Bitcoin’s existence. It’s not a strict line that can never be crossed, but so far, the bottom has always been within a +/- ~$10k range of it (side note: did you know bitcoin’s 200-week moving average has never declined for 17 years?)

As of early February 2026, this implies a range of ~$48,000 - $68,000. However, in 2022, price dipped even lower for a period of time, so again, there’s no hard and fast rule here. But aside from that one period, BTC has never fallen below the 200-week SMA.

Here’s a good Coindesk article on the subject: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/02/02/why-a-usd58-000-bitcoin-is-the-key-number-for-crypto-investors-right-now

I’ve recommended Benjamin Cowen’s YouTube channel before, and he has a great video on the current bear market here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8_iKuXNSPro&t=4s

He does a better job than I can of explaining the technical analysis side of things and comparing current events to previous cycles.

Overall, sentiment is terrible and everyone is freaking out, which is a great sign. Maximum fear equals maximum opportunity, and one day soon, whether that’s next week or next year, we will almost certainly never see Bitcoin under $70,000 again.

The crypto fear and greed index by Coinmarketcap.com has reached a record low of 8 out of 100, which is widely interpreted as one of the best buy signals there could be:

Other good reads:

Binance has announced they will convert $1 billion in stablecoins to BTC, and maintain the value of that fund at $1 billion, buying more if the price dips:

In the latest episode of Hard Money Dispatch, I sat down with Scott Marmoll, a seasoned investment professional who made the leap from legacy finance into the Bitcoin world.

We talked about:

- What changes when capital is allocated in a Bitcoin-denominated mindset
- Why Bitcoiners make fundamentally different business decisions than traditional entrepreneurs
- The discipline required to build Bitcoin-aligned companies
- How mergers and acquisitions look when the balance sheet is measured in hard money
- And the personal journey that pulls people out of TradFi and toward Bitcoin

This wasn’t a price-talk episode. It was a conversation about clarity, incentives, and what happens when money finally stops lying to you.

If you’re building, investing, or allocating capital with Bitcoin in mind, this one’s worth your time.

🎙️ Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/from-fiat-finance-to-sound-money-entrepreneurship-scott/id1649814816?i=1000747781163

🟢 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/6zzkcJTW0ZtHcACv9D3G44

👉 Watch on YouTube:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n2BKjVD0s7M&t=123s

Don’t forget to leave a 5-star review if you’re listening on Apple or Spotify, or a thumbs up if you’re watching on YouTube!

While you may not have subscribed for astrological insights, I have to go there again, and for good reason.

Did you know that we’re on the cusp of an astronomical event that only occurs once every 6,400 years?

On February 20, 2026, a Saturn / Neptune conjunction takes place at 0 degrees in the constellation Aries.

The last time a Saturn Neptune conjunction occurred was in 1989 (my birth year), and the last time it happened right in the middle of Aries was over six millennia ago.

I mention this because it could actually have major significance for markets and world events. The last conjunction of this kind in 1989 coincided with the fall of the Berlin Wall, which aligned perfectly with the themes of this conjunction. Here they are:

Because this is such a rare event, and it involves the theme of a “global reset, particularly around sovereignty,” I thought it was worth sharing. It’s interesting to note that global elites like those of the World Economic Forum (WEF) have been talking of a “great reset” where people will “own nothing and be happy” for years now.

Keep in mind that these things are obviously interpretive, can take shape in many ways, and don’t necessarily happen all at once. February 20 will probably be just another day. But as cultural historian Richard Tarnas says in his groundbreaking book Cosmos and Psyche, the positioning of the planets doesn’t dictate destiny anymore than the hands of a clock dictate what time it is.

In closing, there’s nothing to be deeply concerned about right now. Nothing has fundamentally changed regarding the Bitcoin network.

It wasn’t too long ago that a BTC price of $30,000 was being celebrated (early 2023) or that $21,000 lead to absolute euphoria (early 2021).

Thanks for reading. If you found value here, please share this newsletter with someone else who might like it, and don’t forget to subscribe if you haven’t already.

To your sovereignty and prosperity,